Ukraine continues to pull to the front line in the Donbass heavy weapons and the deployment of field hospitals and headquarters, evidence of the impending major offensive. It is likely that the current storm APU may be the most powerful in all the years of fighting in the South-East of Ukraine – Kiev went even complete denudation of the border with the Crimea, where they were held in the Kherson region, major military forces, including the nationalist battalions.
The failure of this offensive, and it is inevitable, would mean the complete collapse of the policy of President Poroshenko, the final loss of influence in the country (resignation) and, as a consequence, the collapse of Ukraine as a state.
What urged Ukraine this decisive assault on the rebellious Donbass, where positional battles have become the norm in the past three years, and the possibility of political dialogue Merkle under armed onslaught? And in that moment, when peace prospects were as close to a real agreement. And world leaders, in the face of the American trump, German Merkel, etc., almost in one voice talking about a complete cessation of hostilities in the Donbass.
We will remind that the situation on the contact line in the Donbass deteriorated sharply in late January 2017, when the Ukrainian terrorists have caused massive strikes on the cities of the DNI and LC of heavy artillery systems. In the days following the attacks only intensified. AFU used MLRS “Uragan” and “Grad” and heavy mortars, tanks, SP guns, IFVs and other kinds of prohibited “Minsk-2” weapons.
The escalating conflict has led to numerous Gurtam, including among the civilian population. Was damaged hundreds of houses and infrastructure. The number of attacks exceeded one thousand and even with the relative calm in what could be called the 6 and 7 February, the Ukrainian military managed more than 600 times to open fire on the territory of the DNI.
The most difficult situation persists in the Metropolitan area of Donetsk. Under fire hit the village of Yakovlevka, Spartacus Zhabichevo Kruta Balka and in the Yasinovatsky area, the area of the former airport, Kievsky and Petrovsky districts of Donetsk, the capital. Difficult situation in the South, where APU is actively shelling Kominternovo, and in the vicinity of Mariupol, which is under the control of Kiev, concentrated large armed groups and nationalist battalions, including the infamous punitive “Donbass” and “Azov”.
If we analyze the situation in the conflict zone, it can be concluded that the Ukrainian authorities had planned the attack. In early January he was sent sixteen trainloads of ammunition, including heavy weapons systems – reactive systems of volley fire “Grad” and “Uragan”, 152-mm guns. The shells are stockpiled and immediately took fighting position – explicitly for emergency use.
Expect the Ukrainian military here and a blatant provocation to cause an artillery strike on Mariupol, and then issue the fire for shots from the DNR. And it’s not propaganda, “duck”, and a planned action, intended to lay the blame for the deaths of civilians in the militia and blame the unrecognized Republic in the failure of the Minsk agreements. Information about this “action” Donetsk scouts received directly from their sources in the headquarters of ATO.
Of the visible reasons that prompted the Ukrainian President to go to another escalation in the Donbas, sees at least three positions. The first is not new and has already been tested in recent years under the exploding shells Poroshenko’s easier to beg another tranche from Europe and the United States. There, behind the hill, no time to figure out who was the instigator of the regular artillery shootings, and the words of Poroshenko always came out that another Russian aggression, no more, no less.
Before it worked completely, but now something has gone awry in the West openly started talking that now we are talking exclusively about the military aggression of Kiev. Sight even partially loyal to the OSCE mission, which had to make out right in front of Ukrainian tanks and artillery systems in the area of differentiation.
The second reason, which is called Poroshenko to raise troops to attack – the need to seize Donetsk and the maximum number of territories of Donbass. And after such a smashing success with a willingness to sit at the peace table, when the “rebel territories” is almost nothing left. And the subsequent armed resistance militias and their attempts to recapture lost ground can be used against them.
So Kiev is now most want ubitsa wedges on the territory of the DNI and the LC, at least have closed in Donetsk, Gorlovka, Lugansk, and since these positions appeal to the international community to provide peacekeeping assistance. Not particularly surprising, not particularly tricky, but this plan, at the incarnation, can put bold cross on the very existence of the people’s Republic of Donbass. Without major cities, they would not be of special significance even in terms of further self-development.
A semblance of victory in the Donbas, Poroshenko and need for self-preservation in power. His ratings today has dropped below the level of the city sewers, there is not that before the elections of 2018 to survive, but at least six months to survive. Picking on the President on all fronts – the opposition, and even like associates. Only lazy member of Parliament does not let go of the barbs and criticism. Special active is the “iron scythe” Yulia Tymoshenko is ready to sit in the armchair of the head of state, even a “downed pilot” Hope Savchenko, which calls aloud Poroshenko “enemy of the nation”.
The Secretary of security Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov, who is also no stranger to presidential ambitions, made a bet in his statements exactly on the brilliant victory in the Donbas. It seems that he Poroshenko took the idea of a military option to strengthen the shaken credibility and trust on the remains by the army of the showy flick of the wrist sent it in last and a decisive battle.
“The situation for the Kiev authorities is critical, – says military expert Vladislav Shurigin. – They scraped the bottom of the barrel, and made some sort of bun, which need fire and sword to ride on the territory of Donbass. And it has almost all the reserves that were found in the APU – warehouses of Soviet times are not bottomless, as promised by Obama and McCain lethal weapons to Ukraine was not reached.
One powerful attack that would be enough, but only one, then wanting to kill myself from the shame of defeat will have to find at least one tube. And here all the cards in an armed confrontation in the Donbass will pass into the hands of the army DND and LNR, which will be able to arrange a couple of large boilers and take the line of confrontation on administrative borders of their regions.
Not going to say that the current task of protecting their land in the Donbass for the armed forces of new Russia will be easy. Still, they are opposed by well-armed and equipped army, which does not scruple to use prohibited by the Minsk agreements, heavy weapons, and recently, even the use of tactical missiles “Tochka-U”.
But the experience of fighting in Donetsk teams are still allowed to successfully withstand the onslaught of the Ukrainian army to take the offensive, to successfully maneuver and inflict significant losses to the enemy forces. And even the beginning of the current offensive APU are well kept, without involving their heavy weapons. It seems to me that the coming fight, and she expects to happen in the next week, will be decisive and will put everything in its place”.
APU ready to fight, until “H” there are not a lot of time. The probability of the signal “lights out” is extremely low, considering how high the rate of the Kiev authorities in this battle. Us President trump, whom many trust as the chief peacemaker, closed eyelids: “I don’t know what is happening in Ukraine”, and then waits for the denouement of events. Which will swing the military fate, there seems to turn and the American weather vane.
Author: Viktor Sokirko
Photo: Ministry Of Defence Of Ukraine Sergii Kharchenko/ Serg Glovny/ ZUMAPRESS.com/ Globallookpress