The Finance Ministry considers the current exchange rate is overvalued and offers to devalue it by 10 percent. On Tuesday, January 31, the newspaper “Kommersant”.
The Agency has made calculations of the expected exchange rate of the ruble after the budget rule, which involves the conversion of sovereign wealth funds in the oil and gas revenues depending on the price of raw materials. At an oil price of 40 dollars per barrel average annual exchange rate should be 69,42 rubles per dollar, the Federal budget deficit 3.1% of GDP, from the reserve funds will be seized 1.8 trillion rubles.
At the current cost of raw materials in 55 dollars for barrel the budget deficit will be without the use of fiscal rules 1.5 percent of GDP, spending of reserve funds to 464 billion rubles. “When applying the chosen mode of constant purchase of reserves for Treasury account deficit of 0.7 percent of GDP, the reserve Fund will be replenished for 241 billion rubles, the ruble should weaken by about 10 percent and make 64,9 rubles per dollar”, — writes the edition.
The Ministry considers that no applications budget rules and without the devaluation of the ruble to a balanced Federal budget is possible only with an oil price of $ 76 and above. In a managed devaluation of the ruble, the budget is balanced at an oil price of $ 61.
January 26, the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Stanislav Murashov predicted growth of dollar rate on three-five roubles as a result of scheduled foreign exchange interventions of the Bank of Russia and Ministry of Finance.
The day before, the Finance Ministry announced the start of February 2017 of transactions for the purchase or sale of foreign currency on the domestic market.
Income from oil exports is in the Federal budget of Russia in 2017 of about 37 percent. The budget is formed proceeding from the price of oil to $ 40 per barrel.