Russia preparing for war?

Training for the embattled calculations s-400



The Ministry of defence will continue to strengthen the troops in the southern military district (YUVO). This was stated by the Minister General of the army Sergei Shoigu.

The main reason why it should be done, in the opinion of the Minister – the situation in the South-East of Ukraine, as well as the activities of international terrorist organizations and groups in the North Caucasus.

In these circumstances, according to his statement, “it is necessary to continue work on improving the combat troops of the district; the recruitment of contract servicemen; to equip troops with new armaments and military equipment; and the development of military infrastructure”.

According to the Minister, last year’s “combat capabilities of the district increased by 10%.” Ongoing collection contract, there are new weapons, improving military infrastructure.

The words of the Minister can be understood and so that we still have to fight on the border with Ukraine, and the Caucasus.

– It is necessary to understand that the southern military district is the most belligerent in the recent history of Russia, – said the Director of the Centre for strategic conjuncture Ivan Konovalov. And, fortunately, only in the territory of which was military conflicts. Since the collapse of the USSR the South direction was the most difficult and at times frankly dangerous.

In his statement Sergei Shoigu just recorded what is, in fact. Since the beginning of the civil war in the South-East of Ukraine, we had no choice – we have begun to strengthen the combat capability of the troops of the southern military district. We had to respond in military-political terms. Hence a number of measures – the construction of the railway bypassing Ukraine (no accident, this was done by the Ministry of defense). Hence the increase in the number of military personnel, the increase in the percentage of modern weapons, etc. by the Way, not only of the southern military district stronger, but the black sea fleet. Over the past three years he got a new submarines, frigates, etc.

Meanwhile, although in his statement Sergei Shoigu said first YUVO, now a lot is done to strengthen the Western military district. At the time we are little we are doing them militarily. We used to think that the enemies in the West we have. Now there are doubts. Therefore, ZVO created two new divisions. Military infrastructure is rebuilt in case of aggression from the West, etc.

With regard to SMD, the statement of the Minister of defense more focused on the “external audience” than on the inside. Military experts in Russia are well aware that the combat capability of troops in the South of Russia has grown.

“SP”: – does the statement by Shoigu, that we consider the possibility of Ukrainian aggression against the Crimea or we for one reason or another will have to intervene in military conflict in the South-East?

– Of course, what is happening in the Donbas and indeed Ukraine is not alarming message. It is clear that the armed forces of the DNI and the LC is now quite efficient. But, first, APU numerically superior to them at times. And simply any state, the borders of which there is such a conflict can not respond. Imagine if tomorrow will start a civil war in Mexico. It is clear that the United States immediately focused powerful military forces at the borders with this country. At least in order to prevent uncontrolled flow of refugees and militants under the guise of refugees. The same thing can happen in case of escalation of the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine.

Another scenario – the APU and the national guard under Ukraine starts mass murder and repression against the inhabitants of the DNI and LC. Of course, then Russia will not be able to stay away. And the version of the counter-offensive of the LC and the DNI and the liberation of all of Donbass and not only fraught with unexpected consequences.

“SP”: – is There a risk that the Kiev government and the nationalists tune up, sooner or later, will provoke a serious armed conflict on the territory of Crimea or its borders?

– Yes, this risk exists. Both in Russia and in the West the experts perfectly see that Petro Poroshenko behaves as a temporary worker. He can not, probably doesn’t want to take the country out of the crisis, to improve relations with Russia, to negotiate with the Donbass republics. On the contrary, he and his entourage have no other choice but to constantly pander to the nationalists, demanding decisive “Peremogi” not only in respect of Donbass, and Crimea. And this situation could have unpredictable consequences. December recent fighting near Debaltseve – a clear confirmation. Until now, no one in the Ukrainian leadership is not recognized, who and why gave the order to attack. Obviously, at the junction of the brigades of the DNI and the LC tried to “try their luck” and suddenly be able to make a breakthrough, which will give the opportunity for “quick wins”.

Just as suddenly, something unpredictable as it may occur on the border with Crimea. It is necessary to be always ready.

“SP”: – why Shoigu mentioned the Caucasus, because there is now no military conflicts. Moreover, Chechnya is presented by the media almost as the most Patriotic region. But for Islamic radicals enough intelligence…

– Historically, when the Caucasus has a strong army, there is a more stable situation. Some police and special forces there is not enough. And now, when the next unstable middle East. Remember, resonant attack on Derbent in 2015 – because it was the handiwork of radical Islamists. And if tomorrow to remove from the Caucasus factor in Russian army strong, tomorrow there will be a civil war.

– I note that SMD is not only the South of Russia, – says military expert, retired Colonel Viktor Litovkin. – Area of responsibility includes military base outside of Russia. In particular, in Syria. So, for example, “running in” of new military equipment in combat is also included in the objectives of this district.

Its tasks include the protection of the Crimea, and so last year on the Peninsula in addition to those defenses that were there, was delivered new missile systems s-400. There were also sent anti-ship systems “Bal” and “Bastion”, which is able from the Crimea to impress all the ships in the Bosphorus. We have taken measures to keep under the gun the targets of NATO in Romania, etc.

As for the situation with the South-East of Ukraine, where, as we know that every day is news. Recently, Poroshenko announced that the Ukrainian military aircraft will again fly over the Donbass. Just a few days ago, the APU carried out a new missile exercises near the Crimea. Therefore, we must always keep our powder dry.