The truce in the Donbass is a relative term. And if today is not the thundering of cannon from the position of APU, it does not mean that tomorrow and the day after a fragile silence will continue. And in recent days Kiev almost daily throws its military on the offensive, the success of which mostly boils down to the numerous losses of the Ukrainian army, and among the civilian population is so “hated” and the rebellious Donbass. The tactic of “creeping attack” gives poor results. Why is it then generally is necessary?
“Hedgehogs were pricked, cried, but continued to eat cactus” – a phrase to describe the current policy of official Kiev in the Donbass. Openly spit on all the Minsk agreements, Ukraine stormed unconquered LC and the DNI. Breaking the silence mode even before the New year and not let the children quietly celebrate the holiday, APU tried to go on the offensive.
Then, in December last year, the attack on Svetlodarsk bulge in the area of Debaltsevo not just choked – despite the support of artillery 122-mm and 152-mm guns, 54 brigade of AFU suffered heavy losses (according to representatives of DND, 40 dead and 50 wounded), and was forced to withdraw.
However, such a blatant defeat, if not a defeat, did not stop the Ukrainian military command – “hedgehogs” sent again “to gnaw a cactus”. One of the last episodes was January 10, when three groups of Ukrainian troops tried to attack the settlement of Spartak, on the Northern outskirts of Donetsk. And again they had to move out of the combat losses, as they say, empty-handed.
But the next day the APU again went into battle in Svetlogorsk arc. Attempts to organize the attack were noted on the separation line in the Luhansk region. In some cases, they manage to move a few hundred meters ahead in the so-called “grey zone” – in fact, in the neutral zone.
The current tactics of the Ukrainian army, called “creeping offensive” – not new used since 2014. Its effectiveness is very controversial: reverse the result of those actions was at the time, the loss of APU Horlivka and the Donetsk airport. But it continues to use again and again. In the first place to create the image of the army, which “did not sit in the trenches” and, therefore, requires additional glorification, and therefore additional costs. Second, the incessant firing and the whistle of bullets over his head to keep the troops in shape and force to improve combat training.
However, the Ukrainian army in such efficiency loses more than it receives. Force invests a lot, but the promotion for a couple of hundred metres ahead then turns into a much larger losses, including territorial. But some forces have APU not so much: the resource is very limited, it even if scratched all the corners, enough for a maximum of three weeks of fighting. So a full-scale offensive in the Donbass Ukraine simply will not do. Donetsk armed corps is a tough nut, who hurriedly not split.
Now Ukraine is trying to somehow identify themselves in the world space, to attract attention. It is clear that soon they use a PR with a focus on the military aspect goes to the political plane. It is unlikely the new President of the United States will send a free “cookies”, it will make all the same Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table.
“In the first place, while analyzing the current situation on the fronts of the Ukrainian civil war should pay attention to the position of the OSCE, says mediaconsulting and expert on information and psychological warfare Alexander Zimovsky. – Set out the current head of the OSCE Sebastian Kurtz is extremely lapidary: “No armed police mission of the OSCE in the Donbass is not expected”. If you want, then this can be translated as a signal to the European participants of the Ukrainian civil war – “a plague on both your houses”. This means that the OSCE is beginning behind the scenes to reallocate Ukraine in the zone of responsibility of Russia.
From a military point of view, Ukraine is objectively not able to organize any serious fighting in the Donbas even at the level of battalion tactical groups. Any well-planned attack could not be considered. So, we are seeing Ukrainian zitskrig in all its monotony. However, the “Minsk process” has created an environment rich in opportunities for all participants of the Ukrainian civil war. I’m talking about “grey zones”, which are located in the front strip with a length of about 500 km in the Donbas and further, almost stepping into the territory of Kharkiv region.
It’s no man’s land. Almost all the civilian population left it, but in the context of high urbanization of the Donbass in Soviet times, these urban industrial ruins connected network of local roads and railway lines, are an ideal place to combat various types of assault teams. If to draw an analogy, all the veterans know what “green” and what it could provide opportunities to enemy. So, the “grey areas” of Donbas is a “green paint” from the ruins of brick and concrete.”
“Focus on the political possibilities, – continues Alexander Zimovsky. – The development of “grey areas” – a great media occasion, Klondike or Eldorado for propagandists. What are the wooded beam Nut, and entrenched on its slopes the platoon “Makogon” – and you can endlessly tell the townsfolk about how the Nut goes hand in hand with mass heroism “makogonov”.
A sort of “forgotten old Shoe” from the textbook cinema for political strategists Wag The Dog. Ukraine has coined a special term to describe this endless process of “de – occupation”. “Deoccupation” areas “grey areas” are subject to the complete depopulation: the remaining civilians in the best case forcibly expelled. At worst… Well, it’s obvious.
And opposite forces DNI/LC, expanding its presence in the “gray areas” tend to quickly enter them into civilian life, organizing the restoration of critical infrastructure and supply. By the way, the price of food in the LC, for example, is almost two times lower than in the territory of the Lugansk region controlled by Kiev. Such a huge price imbalance, of course, stimulate an intensive exchange of contraband. So the struggle in the “gray areas” is even more serious than economic motives.
While warlords APU, of course, seek the maximum use of opportunities for enrichment. Just recently, the Ukrainian captain, the chief of one of military ranges, sold on the vine forest growing on the landfill site, and organized its felling and removal forces their soldiers. His colleagues in the area of ATO in the absence of forest organizing the collection and sale of scrap metal in their areas of responsibility.
There are so-called side effect. Recruits APU during the fighting in the “gray areas” acquire the skills of the shelling of residential areas of the DNI/LC and killing their peaceful fellow citizens, that is, are related to the bloody bail. And all this is accompanied by an atmosphere full of uncertainty. It comes from the high command and the political leadership in Kiev.
While no one knows how to negotiate Putin and trump on global issues. But by all indications in these planned to discuss the cases of Ukraine fit on two pieces of paper A4 format. Kiev homegrown strategists believe that the status quo will be recorded on the line on which the APU will be the moment when Putin and trump will remember about Ukraine. But it’s too primitive calculation, local level planning. In fact the sought line can be much further to the West, say, along the southern bug and Dniester. And it will be in the future a much more solid guarantee of a long and lasting peace in the brotherly Ukraine”.
Author: Viktor Sokirko
Video: Press service of the CNM DNR / YouTube
Photo: OSCE/ Celestino Arce Lavin/ Juan Teixeira/ Nazar Fury/ Sergii Kharchenko/ ZUMAPRESS.com/ Globallookpress